Indyref2: George Galloway warns of 'economic nightmare'
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A YouGov poll for The Times of 1,144 Scots which took place from May 2-4 and was released just hours before the fourth and final live televised election debate on Tuesday evening, saw support for the Yes vote plummet to just 45 percent. During the historic vote seven years ago, Scots voted against Scottish independence by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent in a bitter blow for then First Minister Alex Salmond and his deputy Nicola Sturgeon. Support for the ‘Yes’ vote fell by two points from the previous poll last month, while the percentage for voting ‘No’ went up by the same margin.
Mr Galloway, a fierce critic of Ms Sturgeon and Scottish independence, take his All for Unity party into the Scottish election hoping to help prevent an SNP majority that could see them press ahead with another referendum.
Reacting to the latest independence polling blow for the First Minister, the veteran MP simply tweeted: “Seven wasted years”.
Several polls released this week have put an SNP majority on a knife-edge as Scotland braces itself for the possibility of a renewed push to split from the UK.
The YouGov poll suggested the SNP is set for a four-seat majority, with 52 percent in the constituency and 38 percent on the regional list.
Modelling from polling expert Sir John Curtice has the SNP taking 68 of the 129 available seats in the Scottish Parliament, with the Greens more than doubling their seat total to 13.
The Scottish Conservatives would lose five seats to stand at 26 but still retain a tight hold on second place as Labour could drop to 17 seats – losing seven.
YouGov’s poll also suggests the Alba Party, led by Alex Salmond, would win a single seat after receiving three percent of the vote.
That seat would likely come in the Mid Scotland and Fife region – where it received seven percent of the vote would see Eva Comrie take her seat in parliament among the 82 pro-independence MSPs.
But a separate poll suggests the SNP’s hopes for a majority and subsequent increased push for a second referendum on Scottish independence appear to be slipping away
A Savanta ComRes poll for The Scotsman of 1,001 Scottish adults from April 30 to May 4 showed the SNP would receive just 42 percent in the constituency vote – down three points
The SNP also dropped two points to 34 percent in the list voting intention, and if this were to be the election majority, it would make a majority for Ms Sturgeon all the more unlikely.
For the list vote, the Conservatives are up a single point to 23 percent, while Labour remains on 19 percent.
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The Green Party are on nine percent, which could see them increase their representation in Holyrood, while the Liberal Democrats are on six percent, Alba on two percent, and others on six percent.
These results would leave the SNP six seats short of an outright majority in the Scottish parliament, according to electionpolling.co.uk’s swingometer.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes, said: “If these polling figures play out on Thursday’s vote, it’ll likely leave the SNP short of the majority they desire and is a fair reflection of a 2021 in which the UK government performance, and a new Scottish Labour leader, have helped shore up the vote in Scotland for the main unionist parties.”
But he warned: “Falling a little short of a majority is still ultimately a dominant performance from the SNP.
“Their disappointment should only be felt in the context of significant poll leads towards the end of 2020, where a disastrous year for a new Conservative government in Westminster, a lack of a Brexit deal and the first of murmurings at dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer were contributing to unprecedented numbers for the SNP and for independence.
“However, with some constituency races very tight, these numbers do not even necessarily present bad news for the SNP.
“If the drop in support we’ve seen in 2021 can be restricted to areas they’re already strong, Thursday could still yield a strong, pro-independence feel to Holyrood when MSPs return.”
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