Roe v Wade anti-abortion ruling will propel Donald Trump BACK into the White House – poll

Patrick Basham discusses Trump and Roe v Wade

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Last month the Supreme Court in America overturned the Roe vs Wade ruling made in the 1970s which gave women an unquestioned right to have an abortion at any stage in the nine months of their pregancy. Writing for, Sarah Elliott from Republicans Abroad says it means US States can pass their own laws on the issue. But the decision was roundly condemned by the Democrats with President Joe Biden vowing to take action to protect women’s abortion rights but the monthly Democracy Institute/ tracker poll of American opinion has revealed that more voters are now more likely to support the Republicans as a result of the decision.

According to the poll of 1,500 likely voters from across the USA, 26 percent are more likely to vote for the pro-life Republican Party which mostly opposes abortion or wanted to see it restricted to European levels.

Meanwhile, despite the outrage by feminist groups, just 17 percent are more likely to vote Democrat.

While, just six percent of Americans identify abortion as the most important issue a large number of them are pro-life.

Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham explained while the issue divides America with very strong opinions on both sides, there are more single-issue voters who oppose abortion who would not normally vote than on the pro-choice side.

In an interview, he said: “Republicans are these days net winners when abortion is literally or figuratively on the ballot.

“Both parties attract very skewed pro-life (Republicans) pro-choice voters, but what is as important is do you add any new voters to your tally?”

He added: “Our polling has been clear for some time and other polling is out there from recent elections which backs this up, that there are single issues voters on both sides.

“But for those who this is the number one issue and often the singular issue, they overwhelmingly are pro-life voters who vote Republican when they think this is the issue of the day.

“As importantly, they are what we call low propensity voters so they often don’t actually vote and it is this issue that draws them to the polls.”

He added: “On the democratic side there are lots of ardent pro choice voters who are extra motivated by Roe v Wade but they tend to always vote and be in safe Democratic districts and states.”

“This is not going to be the silver bullet that rescues the Democrats.”

Mr Basham pointed out that of the current nine sitting judges, Donald Trump appointed three of them and they all voted to overturn Roe v Wade.

Most controversially, just before the election he appointed the highly regarded conservative Amy Coney Barrett despite attempts by the Democrats to prevent a selection until after the US election in 2020.

Mr Basham said: “It is always the case that a President’s legacy in general is more about the Supreme Court.

“Trump was able to have three opportunities to put people on and we see what a difference that makes

“So both sides will redouble their efforts in 2024. The Republicans will say ‘see what we achieved’ and the Democrats will say ‘this is why we can’t have a Republican President again.’”


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The polling shows if he runs against Joe Biden, Trump would win by 48 percent to 43 percent while he would easily beat Vice President Kamala Harris by 37 percent.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are in a strong position to win the midterm election in November with a big margin by 49 percent to 41 percent.

This would give the Republicans a majority in the House of Representatives of 264 to 171 and Senate of 54 to 46.

Sarah Elliott: Overturning Roe v Wade means the democratic process will decide the great human question: When does life begin?

For the first time in 50 years and after over 63 million abortions, abortion is no longer a constitutional right in the United States of America. It’s now up to the states and the citizens of that state to legislate what they feel is moral and just on the issue of abortion. This is as it should have always been from the beginning, but instead in an act of judicial activism nine Supreme Court Justices in 1973 ruled that it was unconstitutional for states to unnecessarily restrict or regulate abortion. 

This hotly contested “right” meant for the past 50 years, states could not ban the practice or even place protections for women and the unborn, regardless whether the fetus could feel pain, suck its thumb or kick, for instance. It was considered a God-given right that women could have an abortion in all nine months of pregnancy for any reason and without question. In fact, Vice President Kamala Harris supports abortion up to 38 weeks, past full term which is 37 weeks. Even in far left-wing places like California, there is proposed legislation that if a baby survives an abortion in the third trimester, it can be denied care. In most parts of the world, this is called infanticide.

America has some of the most extreme abortion laws in the world, and not many people know or discuss these radical positions, which are completely beyond British and European standards. In the UK, you are permitted to have an abortion up to 24 weeks, and in most European countries up to 15 weeks. The majority of mainstream Americans also do not favour this unfettered access to abortion. According to Gallup, only 13% of Americans support abortion in the third trimester (25 to 37 weeks), and 2 out of 3 people support bans after 20 weeks. 

You couple these positions with extraordinary technology where one can see a developing human and heartbeat much earlier as well as being able to keep premature babies viable outside of the womb as early as 22 weeks, and you have a recipe for change.

So what does this change look like?

Well, for once you might say, Americans will start looking more British and European. The issue is now going back to the states for their elected governments to decide what regulations, restrictions or even bans will come into place, thus reflecting the majority views of their constituents. Democracy at work. 

Since a plurality of Americans favour some form of common sense protection, you will find the abortion laws start to moderate and come more in line with European ones. Yes, there will be states which do outright bans. Right now, there are already 13 states which have passed trigger laws, meaning these bans go into effect within 30 days, such as Texas, Utah, Mississippi and North and South Dakota. Others like Florida will ban an abortion after a heartbeat is found. But then there are places like New York and Colorado, where you will be able to have an abortion even if the unborn child is viable outside the womb. 

The laws will run the spectrum because people all across the country carry varying views in the abortion debate. For the fiery culture war that is raging in the United States, this was the best outcome on this contentious topic. The battles will now be taken from a national level to a state one, where it belongs, because abortion is not a constitutional right.

By overturning Roe v Wade, the people will finally decide through the democratic process the great human question: When does life begin?

Sarah Elliott is Chair of the Hamilton Society  and spokeswoman for Republicans Overseas UK

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