Trump vs Brexit – How would a Donald Trump or Biden win affect Brexit?

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Donald Trump and Joe Biden have done all they can to convince the American electorate they are deserving of the US’ top job. During his first term, Mr Trump has largely centred his foreign policy on an ‘America first’ stance, with a heavy emphasis on trade and boosting the US economy. But should Joe Biden be elected, he has pledged to promote the US to the global stage once again.

Should he win the election, Joe Biden has stated he will work to forge alliances between the US and other global nations.

Under the first term in office, Mr Trump oversaw the withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization (WHO), the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Accord.

Mr Biden has pledged to cooperate with the rest of the world on issues such as coronavirus, trade and foreign policy should he be elected.

So what impact would a Trump or Biden presidency have on the US economy, and on the country’s future trading relationship with the UK post-Brexit?

How would a Trump or Biden win affect the US economy?

If Mr Biden becomes President, he has pledged to promote further advancement on Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, as well as investment into green energy.

Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst for IG, told a Biden presidency could see a “tougher legislative environment” for the US.

Mr Beauchamp said: “A split outcome, with Biden in the Oval Office but the Republicans holding sway on Capitol Hill would suggest a tougher legislative environment, which stock markets may prefer as it could limit the president’s opportunity for action.

“Clean energy and healthcare stocks will be in focus, the latter thanks to a more widespread healthcare programme and the former due to a focus on moving away from oil and gas.

“In addition, major tech stocks might feel the pressure if the US government takes a greater interest from a regulatory angle.”

But if Donald Trump wins the election, analysts forecast a “continuity in policy” throughout his second term.

Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst for IG, told “A second term Trump presidency presents a continuity in policy with less disruption.

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“The expectation is for further economic spending and possibly another round of tax cuts to support US business.

“This is likely to be slightly more beneficial to the region’s GDP going forward which is in part why there is an expected outperformance in US equity markets on a Trump re-election.

“However, trade uncertainty particularly with China would remain. This could bode poorly for Asian equity markets.

“Continued geopolitical tensions are supportive of safe haven demand which benefits assets such as gold.”

What would a Trump or Biden win mean for Brexit?

If Joe Biden wins the election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be keen to strike a relationship with the new president and agree a trade deal between the UK and the US post-Brexit.

Mr Johnson will be hoping to secure a deal between the UK and US with lower tariffs, meaning the UK would pay less tax on imported goods.

However, there are some concerns Mr Biden would favour the EU in any trade negotiations.

While Joe Biden was Vice President, ex-President Barack Obama famously warned in 2016 the UK would be at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US if the UK voted for Brexit.

The key issue in Donald Trump’s presidency has been trade and experts question whether Mr Biden would be as focused on the issue of a trade deal compared to his predecessor.

Stephen Booth, head of the Policy Exchange think tank’s Britain in the World project and author of a report on the US deal, told Politico: “Generally, it’s questionable whether Biden will be as focussed on trade policy or trade deals as Trump has been.

“It’s fair to say that Biden is unlikely to attach the same importance or urgency to a UK deal as Trump.

“Biden might also make more of repairing the US’s political relationship with the EU in the first instance.”

Mr Trump has also been incredibly supportive of Brexit, building relationships with Mr Johnson and Nigel Farage over the course of his presidency.

If Mr Trump wins a second term, it may prevail that Mr Trump is a better ally to the UK while the nation negotiates its trading relationship post-Brexit.

But until the election is called, the UK’s future trading relationship with the superpower remains uncertain.

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