Emmanuel Macron polls: What would a Macron win mean for the EU?

Marine Le Pen grills Macron over energy cuts during election debate

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Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face off in a one-on-one popularity contest for the second time in five years on April 24. The incumbent President slid into the second round with 27.8 percent of the vote – 9.8 million ballots – increasing his vote share by three points in 2017 and placing him four ahead of Ms Le Pen. While she clutched on as well with two more points than in 2017, pollsters believe she will miss out again this year as her far-right agenda fails to chime with the French public.

What would a Macron win mean for the EU?

Since he assumed France’s highest office in 2017, Mr Macron has become one of the EU’s principal cheerleaders.

He has helped serve the bloc as a de facto leader during his first term alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel.

Mr Scholz helped outline what a Macron second term would mean for the bloc as Ms Le Pen threatens to disrupt EU unity.

In a tweet on Thursday, the German leader told his followers that the French people face a “critical” choice this weekend.

He introduced Mr Macron as the “democratic candidate who believes France grows in a powerful EU”.

But Ms Le Pen, he added, “openly sides with those attacking our freedom and democracy”.

Mr Scholz’s tweet could be seen as a plea to French voters, as the National Rally leader has sought to at least partly dismantle EU influence in France.

Ms Le Pen is an acute threat to France’s place in the world order, as she has threatened to prize the country from social and military agreements.

One of her flagship policies would see France withdraw from NATO’s military command structures, which have proven vital during Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, she has proposed reforms that would put the French constitution top in the legislative pecking order, above international laws such as those devised by the EU.

Her leadership would also strive for a European Alliance of Nations – an alternative to the EU.

She would also end Franco-German cooperation agreements established during Mr Macron’s tenure.

A win for Mr Macron would ensure that none of this happens and fortify the EU with one of its most prolific supporters for another five years.

He has proposed further integrating France with the bloc and developing a “strategic autonomy” in defence, agriculture, energy and technology.

The French President has looked to protect and enhance existing EU relationships.

Under his government, the bloc would have more support in blocking free-trade pacts with other unions, like South American Mercosur.

He has also teased setting up a mechanism that would more effectively scrutinise outside takeovers of EU companies.

Part of this strategy would see the President push Europe towards the “metaverse” and regulate American big tech monopolies.

He has also championed France’s relationship with Germany, saying he believes in the “Franco-German couple”.

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