End of EU fears as Poland and Hungary could spark crisis bloc cant recover from

EU's solution to problems 'is more EU' says Oulds

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The European Union has been clashing against its member countries of Poland and Hungary for many years now with the tensions becoming even more severe in recent months. Viktor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister, has faced widespread criticism over anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, while Polish authorities have claimed that they do not accept the supremacy of EU law. Brussels has tried to deal with the situation in many ways from legal action to cutting off funding, but has so far failed to impose any changes.

While experts cannot predict exactly what will happen, there are many possible scenarios, according to Politico.

One of those scenarios shows that the European Union could become more populist.

If the governments of both Poland and Hungary stay in power, and more far-right parties across Europe, such as France and Italy, gain power, it will force the EU to move away from concerns about democracy and rule of law.

Mr Orban and PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski have both invested in building good relations with populist parties across the bloc, and have argued that the EU should be primarily an economic project – with less political integration.

Last month, 16 European right-wing populist parties – including Fidesz, PiS, French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy – said in a joint statement: “The moralistic overactivity that we have seen in recent years in the EU institutions has resulted in a dangerous tendency to impose an ideological monopoly.”

Recently, two right-wing populist parties have done very well in polls in Italy, each scoring around 20 percent.

And according to Politico’s Poll of Polls, Ms Le Pen is currently projected to take 44 percent of the vote in a run-off with French President Emmanuel Macron.

While a Le Pen presidency is often seen as a long shot, it can’t be ruled out.

On top of that, Mr Orban has increasingly aligned himself with a vision of the continent that fits with hers.

The Hungarian prime minister said in a speech in June: “The phrase ‘an ever closer union’ must be struck from the text of the Treaties of the EU at the first available opportunity.”

Another scenario, although less likely, is Polexit and Hexit, which refer to both Poland and Hungary leaving the European Union.

Poland could quit the EU or be kicked out of it by other member countries.

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However, figures have shown that people in both Hungary and Poland back the EU membership.

Only 39 percent of Poles and 28 percent of Hungarians believe that their countries would be better off without the EU, according to a winter 2020-2021 Eurobarometer study.

Both Poland and Hungary have also benefitted from the EU’s funding with the Polish prime minister claiming that he has no intention of leaving.

In Hungary, members of the governing party have expressed mixed views on EU membership.

Earlier this year, Laszlo Kover, speaker of Hungary’s National Assembly and one of the founding members of Fidesz, said that if a referendum on EU membership took place now, he would vote against joining the bloc.

Hungary’s finance minister, Mihaly Varga, told channel ATV that if he had to vote in 2021, he would vote in favour of the EE membership.

But, Mr Varga added that “by the end of the decade, when according to our calculations we will already be net payers to the EU, the question could get a new perspective.”

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