Met Office pinpoints soaring heat spike to strike Britain in days

BBC Weather: Carol Kirkwood forecasts summer temperatures

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June-like temperatures are building this week – with a potential heat peak coming over Halloween weekend, the Met Office has said. Much of southern and central England has seen a mild autumn so far, but the warmest is yet to come. This weekend highs of 20C are predicted, which is a far cry from the gloomy conditions often experienced in late October, as the dark cold nights draw in that bit earlier. The Met Office has now revealed what’s in store for the rest of this week and what’s causing such a late spike which is usually indicative of early summer. 

Stephen Dixon, a Met Office spokesman, told “Temperatures will rise for many through this week and into the weekend, although there will be a continued unsettled theme for many, with some spells of wet and windy weather.

“However, between showers and in the breaks in the cloud, temperatures will be very warm for the time of year, although not enough to trouble October records.”

He explained how a low pressure system in the west is helping to push up warm air from the south, driven by a warmer-than-usual Europe. He added: “What’s behind this is the low pressure to the west of the UK helping to draw in warmer southerly air.

“Much of Europe is also very warm for the time of year, and this southerly airflow is bringing temperatures up for many, especially in the south. However, this does bring with it the risk of showers and breezy conditions at times.”

Looking ahead to the spookiest weekend of the year, Mr Dixon said that trick or treaters, pumpkin pickers or party goers may get to experience highs of 20C as they mark the annual holiday.

He added: “Temperatures could peak in excess of 20C in the weekend.

“Although much will depend on the continuing development smaller-scale movements associated with the low pressure system out to the west as to the positioning of any rain in the weekend.”

He said the weather system is unusual for the time of year, but it’s not enough to constitute a mini heatwave – merely because of the breezy weather and potential for wet and windy weather inbetween.

“In addition, none of the temperatures would meet out threshold for an official heatwave,” he said. 

Jo Farrow, senior forecaster for NetWeather, said in her blog: “The week ahead looks mild with temperatures staying in the teens, perhaps even reaching past 20C in the south.

“The south to south-westerly flow will continue to feed warm air over the UK and with some sunshine, it will feel pleasant and not really like late October. There will be bands of rain and heavy showers working their way northwards linked to various low pressures which will sit out in the Atlantic and make our weather changeable.

“It will stay mild. By day it will feel warm. Everyone will be commenting on it. Later in the week temperatures around London might move into the low 20s C. We’re too late in the month to be thinking about October records but this is warm air for the time of year.

“The large meander in the jetstream keeps the low pressures in place and keeps the feed of mild air up from the south or southwest.”

The big question is – will this weather front stick around into November? The answer in short is no – in fact, the UK’s thermometers are set to plunge somewhat into the start of next month. 

The Met Office’s long range forecast reads: “An increasing chance of settled weather remains during the second week of November, bringing a potential for colder, drier weather especially for the north and west.

“This will likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow expected to fall in any showers in northern and western areas.”

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