US Election polls tracker 2020: Trump slumps in polls as Biden regains lead

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Joe Biden has widened his gap in six key swing states, although the Democratic nominee still has a long way to go to secure the presidency this November. Across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the former Vice President holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over the Republican incumbent, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll.

Mr Biden holds a narrow lead in all six of the swing states, all of which will play a major role in determining who will be the next President of the United States.

Current polling collected by CNFC/Change Research shows:

Arizona: Biden 49 percent, Trump 45 percent (was Biden 49 percent, Trump 47 percent)
Florida: Biden 49 percent, Trump 46 percent (unchanged)
Michigan: Biden 49 percent, Trump 43 percent (was Biden 50 percent, Trump 44 percent)
North Carolina: Biden 49 percent, Trump 47 percent (was Biden 48 percent, Trump 47 percent)
Pennsylvania: Biden 50 percent, Trump 46 percent (was Biden 49 percent, Trump 46 percent)
Wisconsin: Biden 50 percent, Trump 44 percent (was Biden 49 percent, Trump 44 percent)

The poll surveyed 4,143 likely voters across the six states and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

Mr Biden still has a long way to go if he wants to confidently secure the presidency – despite now rising on Mr Trump’s numbers, it’s still a fall from where the former Vice President was earlier in the year.

Opinions on Biden did not budge at all. In Wednesday’s survey, 45 percent of likely voters said they had a favourable view of the Democratic nominee.

While 49 percent responded they had unfavourable feelings about him.

In comparison with national polls, which show Mr Biden also in the lead but with a larger margin, shows volatility at state level.

In an average of all polls, Forbes reports that Mr Biden is leading on Mr Trump by 7.5 points.

Arguably, how this election plays out at state level is more important than how it plays out nationally.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but missed out on the presidency for not winning enough Electoral College seats.

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To become president either candidate needs to win a majority of the 538 electors, so more than 270 electors.

With that caveat aside, Mr Biden has been ahead of President Trump in national polls for most of the year.

He has hovered around 50 percent in recent weeks and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

The polls in 2016 were much less clear, with only a few percentage points separating the two candidates.

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look reasonable for Mr Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly.

Bookies are also back to backing Mr Biden following a stint of even odds between the two.

Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes told “Biden’s back in pole position with the bookies, but Trump is still proving popular with punters and he could well be sharing favouritism soon.”

Mr Biden now finds himself chalked up at 4/5 and Mr Trump at even money.

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