![](\"https:\/\/cdn.images.express.co.uk\/img\/dynamic\/139\/590x\/secondary\/Triple-lock-4949141.jpg?r=1694127892063\")
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<\/em><\/p>\n The analysis also indicates that the triple lock could potentially increase spending by anywhere between a further \u00a35 billion and \u00a345 billion per year, in today\u2019s terms, by 2050.<\/p>\n This projected range is big because of the uncertainty over the path of the state pension that the triple lock creates, making it difficult for either the Government or future pensioners to plan their finances, the IFS said. If the triple lock is kept in place indefinitely, the state pension could potentially be worth between \u00a310,900 to \u00a313,400 per year in today\u2019s terms by 2050, the IFS estimated.<\/p>\n It added that this uncertainty makes it harder for people to plan for retirement. The triple-lock safeguard means that the state pension tends to increase every April, in line with wage growth, price inflation or 2.5% \u2013 whichever is higher.<\/p>\n The IFS said that earnings growth figures released next Tuesday will be likely to determine next April\u2019s increase in the state pension for the UK\u2019s 12 million pensioners. This is because it is typically used as the measure of earnings for the pensions triple lock \u2013 and because it is also likely to be above both 2.5% and CPI (Consumer Prices Index) inflation in September, it added.<\/p>\n Don’t miss… <\/strong> The report said data covering April to June 2023 showed annual earnings growth of 8.2%. It continued: \u201cUnless this falls dramatically in the next data release, or unless CPI inflation (currently at 6.8%) makes a sharp surprise upward turn in September, state pensions will rise next April in line with the earnings growth figure announced on Tuesday.\u201d<\/p>\n The new IFS report was released as part of the Pensions Review in partnership with abrdn Financial Fairness Trust which funds research to help improve living standards.<\/p>\n Heidi Karjalainen, one of the authors of the report and a research economist at the IFS, said: \u201cThe triple lock makes it especially hard to know how much you might receive from a state pension and how much the state pension will cost the state in the future.<\/p>\n \u201cAn additional real risk is that retaining the triple lock for too long increases state-pension spending so significantly that it leads to insurmountable pressure for a much higher state pension age. This would particularly affect people with poorer health who struggle to remain in employment until they reach state pension age.\u201d<\/p>\n A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: \u201cThe Government is committed to the triple lock. As is the usual process, the Secretary of State will conduct his statutory annual review of benefits and state pensions in the autumn, using the most recent prices and earnings indices available.\u201d<\/p>\n We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. More info<\/p>\n
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