Met Office hints at sizzling Indian summer as mercury tipped to soar

UK weather: Outbreaks of rain forecast by Met Office

Unseasonably hot weather which has broken records this month may not be about to falter, according to the Met Office.

The country has basked in seven days of scorching heat which has surpassed 30C in some areas over the course of the last week. 

While Tuesday has seen a noticeable drop in temperatures from last week’s staggering heights, people may not need to put their buckets, spades and suncream away just yet. 

The Met Office’s long-range forecast hints at a potential second wind of heat at the end of this month, and maybe into October. 

The first mini-heatwave may even strike as early as this Saturday, September 16 – with weather maps predicting the south-east to boil in 26C conditions. 

READ MORE: New maps show exact dates another mini-heatwave will swelter Britain

As with any long-range forecast, confidence fades if the prediction is not focussed on the five days ahead. But its forecast from September 26 to October 10 suggests a return of high pressure.

It says in full: “The Met Office Confidence in the forecast for the end of September to early October decreases, with increased uncertainty in part due to the remnants of tropical storms in the Atlantic.

“However, there is likely to be an increased incidence of high pressure in the vicinity of the UK compared to usual for this time of year, which would result in settled weather conditions.

“Temperatures are also likely to be above the seasonal average overall, with an increased chance compared to normal of late season warm spells.”

Jim Dale, a senior meteorologist for British Weather Services did not disagree with the Met’s prediction, but sought to caveat it with a warning that not all regions would see such “settled” weather. 

He told “The Met Office is punting but I’m not arguing. It will be very warm at times rather than hot but for good reasons.”

He said the “most part” of the end of September will be graced with warm weather – but that some areas wouldn’t be so lucky.

He added: “There will also be big rain showers – so very mixed. It is our time for major floods which may well be coming. It will be mixed, mild, warm, very warm and wet – maybe very wet – especially in the west.”

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Will October heat constitute an Indian summer?

According to the Met Office Meteorological Glossary which was first published in 1916, an Indian summer is defined as “a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November.”

Currently, the longest forecast reaches October 10. 

In terms of hotter conditions sporadically appearing in autumn, the Met Office says on its website: “Despite the basis of these phrases around particular dates, there is no statistical evidence to suggest that such warm spells recur at any particular time each year – warm spells during the autumn months are not uncommon.

“Currently, the warmest recorded temperatures in the UK in October and November are 29.9C on October- 1, 2011, in Gravesend, Kent, and 22.4C on November 1, 2015, at Trawsgoed, Ceredigion.”

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